Skip to main content

Understanding Sensex Numbers

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online

Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India)

 


When you look at the market, usually you look at the sensex to gauge the market's direction. Although investors and market watchers often confuse it, for the sensex, numbers like 15,000, 17,000, 20,000 are not mere numbers. For the index, these numbers represent a strong relationship to the earnings of the 30 companies that constitute the market's benchmark.


Here, we will try to understand this relationship which may lead to more clarity when we deal with the market in general, and sensex in particular.


Some of us think that when the sensex was at 3,000 levels about 10 years ago, it was cheaper than the 18,000 levels that it is now. This is not true. Since the index is a multiple of combined earnings per share (EPS) of its 30 constituent companies, if the index is at 18,000 and if the combined EPS is at 1,200, then the index multiple is 15 (1,200x15=18,000). This is also called the PE, or the price-to-earnings ratio.


To have a simple example, we assumed a constant PE of 17 for say six randomly selected representative years over a 14-year period, and took the actual EPS for these six years. Then we multiplied these EPS numbers by 17 and arrived at sensex levels for those years, as given in the first table.


During the 11-year period from 2002 to 2012, earnings grew at an annualized rate of 16%. The sensex level of 3,774 in 2002 and 19,261 in 2012 is one and the same. How? In 2002, at an EPS of 222, the index had a multiple of 17 which gave the number 3,774.
Likewise, in 2012, with earnings of 1,133, the index level of 19,261 was 17 times the EPS. If this is understood, we can see sensex with a new perspective and not as a mere number.


Now the earnings growth here is our investment return. If the earnings grow at 16%, our investment return over the long run would be the same, and there are empirical evidences for developed markets which validate this.


So what happens in the short term?


The market return (as measured by sensex levels) would be more or less than the investment return.


If the investment return is 16% and the market return is 25%, this implies a speculative return of 9%.


If the investment return is 16% and market return is -15%, this implies a speculative return of -31%. The speculative return varies from year to year. But over the long run, the speculative return tends to be zero.


So what matters for us:

 

The earnings growth or investment return? Periods of negative speculative return would be followed by periods of positive speculative return and vice versa.


So we need to ignore both and look at only the investment return which is the true measure of one's return.


In another way, since price and value always converge in the long run, we should focus on the value, and price would take care of itself.

Happy Investing!!

We can help. Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India)

Leave your comment with mail ID and we will answer them

OR

You can write back to us at PrajnaCapital [at] Gmail [dot] Com

---------------------------------------------

Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds ( ELSS Mutual Funds ) to upto Rs 1 lakh and Save tax under Section 80C.

Invest Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online

Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online

These links can be used to Purchase Mutual Funds Online that are regular also (Investment, non-tax saving)

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms from all AMCs

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Applications

These Application Forms can be used for buying regular mutual funds also

Some of the best Tax Saving Mutual Funds available ( ELSS Mutual Funds )

  1. ICICI Prudential Tax PlanInvest Online
  2. HDFC TaxSaverInvest Online
  3. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver FundInvest Online
  4. Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) FundInvest Online
  5. Birla Sun Life Tax Relief '96 Invest Online
  6. IDFC Tax Advantage (ELSS) FundInvest Online
  7. SBI Magnum Tax Gain Scheme 1993Invest Online
  8. Sundaram Tax SaverInvest Online
  9. Edelweiss ELSS Invest Online

------------------

Best Performing Mutual Funds

    1. Largecap Funds Invest Online
      1. DSP BlackRock Top 100 Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Focused Blue Chip Fund
      3. Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund
    2. Large and Midcap Funds Invest Online
      1. ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
      2. HDFC Top 200 Fund
      3. UTI Dividend Yield Fund
    1. Mid and SmallCap Funds Invest Online
      1. Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund
      2. DSP BlackRock Small & Midcap Fund
      3. Sundaram Select Midcap
      4. IDFC Premier Equity Fund
    1. Small and MicroCap Funds Invest Online
      1. DSP BlackRock MicroCap Fund
    1. Sector Funds Invest Online
      1. Reliance Banking Fund
      2. Reliance Banking Fund
    1. Tax Saver MutualFundsInvest Online
      1. ICICI Prudential Tax Plan
      2. HDFC Taxsaver
      3. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund
      4. Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund
    2. Gold Mutual Funds Invest Online
      1. Relaince Gold Savings Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund
      3. HDFC Gold Fund

Popular posts from this blog

ICICI Pru Mutual Fund Dividend

ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund has announced dividend under the following schemes: Scheme Dividend ( Rs /unit) ICICI Pru Capital Protection Oriented Ser V Plan B-D 0.03611325 ICICI Pru Capital Protection Oriented Ser V Plan B Direct-D 0.03611325 ICICI Pru Balanced Advantage Direct-DM 0.06 The record date has been fixed as February 08, 2017. ------------------------------ ------ Invest Rs 1,50,000 and Save Tax upto Rs 46,350 under Section 80C. Get Great Returns by Investing in Best Performing ELSS Funds Top 4 Tax Saver Mutual Funds for 2017 - 2018 Best 4 ELSS Mutual Funds to invest in India for 2017 1. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund 2. Invesco India Tax Plan 3. Tata India Tax Savings Fund 4. BNP Paribas Long Term Equity Fund Invest in Best Performing 2017 Tax Saver Mutual Funds Online Invest Best Tax Saver Mutual Funds Online Download Top Tax Saver Mutual Funds  Application Forms For further information contact  SaveTaxGetRich on 94 8300 8300 ------------------------------ ------ Leave y...

What is Financial Freedom?

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Buy Gold Mutual Funds Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India)     There were many things common between our Freedom fighters. All had the Single vision (Free India), common goal (independence) and had a disciplined and focused approach. They were ready to do anything and everything and had made so many sacrifices to see India free . But the road to freedom was not easy .They had faced lot many hardships, went to jail so many times and even confronted physical and mental torture from the British. There was one more thing which proved to be an advantage to our fighters that most of them were professional lawyers. The knowledge of legal issues and its impact on our country at large has helped them counter various bills and proposed new laws by the then government. It is due to their continuous effort that we are able to achieve the goal of Independent Indi...

Hidden Bank Fees

  What Banks Hide From Customers Imagine after a peaceful and exciting holiday you receive your bank statement with steep charges. You then rush to your bank and start confronting staff members and to your dismay, you come to know that the high end debit card was charged very heavily. Wouldn't this cause damage to your finances? So remember, the world outside is full of deceptive and double cheating people. Unethical practices are always used by company sales person in order to meet the target. Credit card companies, mutual funds and bank institutions always play dirty tricks to lure customers and the practices are rampant. So here's how you should be careful while dealing with your banks: High End Debit Card Charges While opening an account with a bank you opt for a debit card with minimal charges. But later on when you upgrade your card and opt for high end debit card the annual charge rise by a good amount. Though such a card has slew of features but it all comes at a high ...

Updating a minor PAN card upon becoming adults

  Updating a minor's PAN card once they become adults A PAN card issued in the name of a minor does not contain the minor's photograph or signature, and therefore, cannot be used as a valid proof of identity. Once a minor PAN card holder turns 18, the relevant changes must be made in the PAN records. A new card is then issued bearing a photograph and signature. Application The applicant is required to fill up the "Request for new PAN card andor changes or correction in PAN data" form. The form can be filled up online by accessing NSDL's Tax Information Network website and clicking on the online PAN application tab. Information The applicant must mention the existing PAN number in the application and check the `photo mismatch' and `signature mismatch' boxes, and submit the online form. The form must also be printed out, signed by the applicant, and submitted along with two photographs. Documents Identity and address proof in the form of a copy of the app...

Partial withdrawal from PPF

  Public Provident Fund (PPF) account has a lock in period   If you opened a PPF account to meet your retirement needs,, think twice about withdrawing from this fund before retirement. But provided it's an emergency here are the rules. Public Provident Fund (PPF) account has a lock in period before which you cannot withdraw your money.   The partial withdrawal is allowed after the completion of 6 financial years . This means that you will be allowed a partial withdrawal from 1 April 2017. The maximum partial withdrawal allowed is the least of the following: 50 percent of the account balance at the end of fourth financial year, 31 March 15 50 percent of the account balance of the end of previous financial year, 31 March 17.   There's a loan option available on your PPF account between the fourth and the sixth financial year. You can obtain a loan of up to 25 per cent of the balance in your account. However, this will attract interest of 2 percent more than the prevailing ...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now