Prajna Capital - An Investment Guide

The stock market has been staying below its 200-day moving average and forming lower tops and lower bottoms, confirming that it has tanked out THE debate on whether we are in a bear market or not should be over, as it now feels and seems like a bear market, says brokerage house Morgan Stanley, in its India strategy report titled ‘How Long Will This Bear Market Last?’. A key indicator has been the market staying below its 200-day moving average ( DMA ), and forming successive lower tops and lower bottoms. In the three bear markets of the last 20 peak, Indian benchmarks have already fallen close to 40% from their record highs seen in January this year. But the moot question here, according to Morgan Stanley, is how long this bear phase will last, and not how much further prices are going to fall. This bear market has averaged 1.3% in the 25 weeks that it has fallen since its January top—slightly higher than the average of 1.1% in the first 25 weeks of the previous three bear markets. Mor...