Skip to main content

Gold Silver ratio helps to predict the price pattern

GOLD-silver ratio, which denotes how many ounces of silver are needed at a given point of time to buy an ounce of gold, is a handy tool to understand the direction in which the two volatile metals may move in the near future.

The ratio can help an investor to switch his holdings to gold or silver as the ratio moves up and down, thus, accumulating more quantity of both the metals.

The ratio shows how many times more expensive gold is to silver. Typically, the ratio moves in a pattern, and in normal circumstances, it helps predict which direction the prices shall move in the near future.

Between 1950s and 1980s, the gold-silver ratio has largely moved between 20 and 50. In 1980, however, it touched 100, when global economies were trying to contain inflation and were selling their gold reserves. In 1990-2000, the ratio largely remained stable.

In the past decade, the ratio has been moving gradually, but consistently lower.
The median point has remained at around 54. At the start of the year, the ratio was at 52 levels, down to a low of 32 and is at present back at 52 levels.
 
The ratio has moved significantly higher during times of economic uncertainties as gold is one of the leading safe-haven assets.
Gold is mainly an invest ment tool, while silver serves industrial purposes as well.
During stable times, it is better to invest in silver and shift monies to gold during uncertainties.
The ratio had peaked in recent times during the financial crisis of 2008-09 and the dotcom bust in early 2000. During the dotcom bust, the ratio had touched 80 and in late 2008, it shot up to 84.
How to use the ratio: At the present ratio of 52, an uninitiated investor can start putting his money in gold till it reaches 70. "One need not invest the entire amount in one go, but make a staggering investment as the ratio moves up," said Bitupan Ma jumdar, analyst, commodities and assets, JRG Wealth Management.

Once it reaches 70 and if there is an upward trend, it is time to move the gold holdings partly into silver. Almost 60 per cent of the holdings can thus be moved into silver in phases if the ratio touches 80.

The ratio moving beyond 85 levels has happened only in 1980 and this is not likely in normal situations. From 80, the ratio has come down and silver prices have started rallying.

At 80 levels, the investor should wait for the silver rally to play out and the ratio to once again drop down to levels between 50 and 55.
Between 50 and 35, he can once again accumulate gold as the ratio is only going to move up at around 35.

Along with the ratio, an investor also has to follow the macro economic factors to understand the duration of the cyclical movement in gold and silver.

The ratio can stay at higher levels for a longer period if the financial crises are triggering safe-haven buying in gold. On the other hand, if the financial markets are stable and the industrial output of key economies remain robust, the ratio can remain at lower levels for a longer time.
 

Popular posts from this blog

Tata Mutual Fund

Being a part of the Tata group, the fund has the backing of a very trusted brand name with strong retail connect. While the current CEO has done an excellent job in leveraging the Tata brand name to AMC's advantage, it is ironic that this was just not capitalised on at the start. Incorporated in 1995, Tata Mutual Fund remained an 'also-ran' fund house for around eight years. Till March 2003, it had a little over Rs 1,000 crore in assets and 19 AMCs were ahead of it. But soon after that the equation changed. It was the fastest growing fund house in 2004 and 2005. During these two years, it aggressively launched six equity funds, two debt funds and one MIP. The fund house as of now stands at No. 8 in terms of asset size. This fund house has a lot to offer by way of choice. And, it also has a number of well performing schemes. Tata Pure Equity, Tata Equity PE and Tata Infrastructure are all good funds. It also has quite a few good debt funds. The funds of Tata AMC are known to...
Read more

UTI Mutual Fund

Even though only a few of UTI’s funds are great performers, this public sector fund house has many advantages that its rivals do not. It has a huge base of retail equity investors and a vast distribution network. As a business, it looks stronger than ever, especially in the aftermath of credit crunch. UTI is, by a large margin, the most profitable fund company in the country. This is not surprising, since managing equity funds is more profitable than debt. Its conservative approach and stable parentage is likely to make it look more attractive to investors in times to come. UTI’s big problem is the dragging performance that many of its equity funds suffer from. In recent times, the management has made a concerted effort to improve performance. However, these moves have coincided with a disastrous phase in the stock markets and that has made it impossible to judge whether the overhaul will eventually be a success. UTI’s top performers are a few index funds, some hybrid funds and its inf...
Read more

Salary planning Article

1. The salary (basic + DA) should be low. The rest should come by way of such allowances on which the employer pays FBT and you don't pay any tax thereon. 2. Interest paid on housing loan is deductible u/s 24 up to Rs 1.5 lakh (Rs 150,000) on self-occupied property and without any limit on a commercial or rented house. 3. The repayment of housing loan from specified sources is also deductible irrespective of whether the house is self-occupied or given on rent within the overall ceiling of Rs 1 lakh of Sec. 80C. 4. Where the accommodation provided to the employee is taken on lease by the employer, the perk value is the actual amount of lease rental or 20 per cent of the salary, whichever is lower. Understandably, if the house belongs to a family member who is at a low or nil tax zone the family benefits. Yes, the maximum benefit accrues when the rent is over 20 per cent of the salary. 5. A chauffeur driven motor car provided by the employer has no perk value. True, the company would...
Read more

8 Investing Strategy

The stock market ‘meltdown’ witnessed since the start of 2005 (notwithstanding the recent marginal recovery) has once again brought to the forefront an inherent weakness existent in our markets. This is the fact that FIIs, indisputably and almost entirely, dominate the Indian stock market sentiments and consequently the market movements. In this article, we make an attempt to list down a few points that would aid an investor in mitigating the risks and curtailing the losses during times of volatility as large investors (read FIIs) enter and exit stocks. Read on Manage greed/fear: This is an important point, which every investor must keep in mind owing to its great influencing ability in equity investment decisions. This point simply means that in a bull run - control the greed factor, which could entice you, the investor, to compromise with your investment principles. By this we mean that while an investor could get lured into investing in penny and small-cap stocks owing to their eye-...
Read more

Debt Funds - Check The Expiry Date

This time we give you an insight into something that most debt fund investors would be unaware of, the Average Portfolio Maturity. As we all know, debt funds invest in bonds and securities. These instruments mature over a certain period of time, which is called maturity. The maturity is the length of time till the principal amount is returned to the security-holder or bond-holder. A debt fund invests in a number of such instruments and each of these instruments would be having different maturity times. Hence, the fund calculates a weighted average maturity, which would give a fair idea of the fund's maturity period. For example, if a fund owns three bonds of 2-year (Rs 30,000), 3-year (Rs 10,000) and 5-year (Rs 20,000) maturities, its weighted average maturity would be 3.17 years. What is the big deal about average maturity then, you may ask. Well, knowing a fund's average maturity is important because it tells you how sensitive a fund is to the change in interest rates. It is ...
Read more
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now