Skip to main content

Gold Silver ratio helps to predict the price pattern

GOLD-silver ratio, which denotes how many ounces of silver are needed at a given point of time to buy an ounce of gold, is a handy tool to understand the direction in which the two volatile metals may move in the near future.

The ratio can help an investor to switch his holdings to gold or silver as the ratio moves up and down, thus, accumulating more quantity of both the metals.

The ratio shows how many times more expensive gold is to silver. Typically, the ratio moves in a pattern, and in normal circumstances, it helps predict which direction the prices shall move in the near future.

Between 1950s and 1980s, the gold-silver ratio has largely moved between 20 and 50. In 1980, however, it touched 100, when global economies were trying to contain inflation and were selling their gold reserves. In 1990-2000, the ratio largely remained stable.

In the past decade, the ratio has been moving gradually, but consistently lower.
The median point has remained at around 54. At the start of the year, the ratio was at 52 levels, down to a low of 32 and is at present back at 52 levels.
 
The ratio has moved significantly higher during times of economic uncertainties as gold is one of the leading safe-haven assets.
Gold is mainly an invest ment tool, while silver serves industrial purposes as well.
During stable times, it is better to invest in silver and shift monies to gold during uncertainties.
The ratio had peaked in recent times during the financial crisis of 2008-09 and the dotcom bust in early 2000. During the dotcom bust, the ratio had touched 80 and in late 2008, it shot up to 84.
How to use the ratio: At the present ratio of 52, an uninitiated investor can start putting his money in gold till it reaches 70. "One need not invest the entire amount in one go, but make a staggering investment as the ratio moves up," said Bitupan Ma jumdar, analyst, commodities and assets, JRG Wealth Management.

Once it reaches 70 and if there is an upward trend, it is time to move the gold holdings partly into silver. Almost 60 per cent of the holdings can thus be moved into silver in phases if the ratio touches 80.

The ratio moving beyond 85 levels has happened only in 1980 and this is not likely in normal situations. From 80, the ratio has come down and silver prices have started rallying.

At 80 levels, the investor should wait for the silver rally to play out and the ratio to once again drop down to levels between 50 and 55.
Between 50 and 35, he can once again accumulate gold as the ratio is only going to move up at around 35.

Along with the ratio, an investor also has to follow the macro economic factors to understand the duration of the cyclical movement in gold and silver.

The ratio can stay at higher levels for a longer period if the financial crises are triggering safe-haven buying in gold. On the other hand, if the financial markets are stable and the industrial output of key economies remain robust, the ratio can remain at lower levels for a longer time.
 

Popular posts from this blog

JP Morgan launches Emerging Markets Opportunities Equity Offshore Fund

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300 JP Morgan launches Emerging Markets Opportunities Equity Offshore Fund    The new fund offer opens for subscription on 16 th June and closes on 30 th June. JP Morgan Mutual Fund today announced the launch of its open end fund of fund called Emerging Markets Opportunities Equity Offshore Fund. The fund will invest in an aggressively managed portfolio of emerging market companies in the underlying fund - JPMorgan Funds - Emerging Markets Opportunities Fund, says a JP Morgan press release. Noriko Kuroki, Client Portfolio Manager, Global Emerging Markets Team (Singapore), JPMAM said, "Emerging markets have been out of favour for several years, as growth decelerated and earnings struggled. However, in a world of globalisation, we believe that EM will eventually re-couple with DM, leading to the long-aw...
Read more

Nifty F&O

  1. What is a straddle? A strategy using Nifty options usually before a major event or when one is uncertain of market direction. Comprises purchase of a Nifty call and put option of the same strike price. Usually strikes are purchased closer to the level of the underlying index. 2. What is better ­ buying or selling a straddle? It depends.Implied volatili ty of options, or near-term expectations of price swings in an un derlier like Nifty , usually peaks before an event and falls when the outcome plays out ­ like Infy re sults in past years. However, once the event plays out, a sharp rise or fall in Nifty could result in price of the straddle rising ­ benefiting buy ers. But, normally , those who sell or write options charge hefty premiums from buyers in the hope that fall in volatility would ensure the options end out-of-the-money, hurting buyers. 3. So, do straddle sellers end up winning most of the time? Yes. That's invariably the case when market volatility is trending on the...
Read more

L&T Long Term Infrastructure Bond 2012 Tranche 2 Application Forms

Application form for Tax Saving Long Term Infrastructure Bond     L&T Long Term Infra Bond Application form     Submit filled up application     Collection canter near you     --------------------------------------------- Invest Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Mutual Funds Online   Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms from all AMCs Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Applications   ---------------------------------------------   How to apply to PFC Bonds? Apply for PFC Tax Free Bonds forms below Download PFC TAX Free Bond Application Forms Submit the filled up form to Collection canter near you How to apply to NHAI Bonds? You can download the NHAI Tax Free Bonds forms below Download NHAI Tax Free bond Application Forms Submit the filled up form to Collection canter near you        
Read more

Stocks with a high dividend yield

Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Mutual Funds Online Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India) Stocks with a high-dividend yield can provide investors additional cash flow. More importantly, it is tax-free   With April 2011 just over, the 'earnings season' is well and truly here. This is the time most companies pay out a portion of their profits as dividends to shareholders. Since dividends are tax-free, they are an attractive income source with a select class of investors, who depend on these for additional cash flow. SIGNIFICANCE A company doing well and generating profits will usually be in a position to declare dividends regularly. Hence, a key parameter one should look at whilst investing in a stock is whether the company has a good dividend record. Typically, dividend yield stocks are large-caps and generally not capital-intensive. This is suggestive of the fact that the downside risk on...
Read more

UTI Equity Fund Invest Online

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Buy Gold Mutual Funds Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India)   UTI Equity Fund   Invest Online UTI Equity is a large cap-oriented fund with assets under management worth Rs. 2,269 crore (as on June 30, 2013). The fund was originally launched in May 1992 as UTI Mastergain and is benchmarked against S&P BSE 100. A couple of years back the name of the fund was changed to UTI Equity Fund and many of the smaller funds of UTI were merged into this fund. Performance The fund has outperformed its benchmark as well as the equity diversified category average in the last one-, three- and five-year periods. It has repeated the same in 2013 (as on May 31). Since its inception the fund has delivered an impressive 26 per cent compounded annual growth rate which is superior to its benchmark performance in the same period. Y...
Read more
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now