Skip to main content

Do not exit completely from gold in your portfolio

 

Gold in your portfolio

 

 





The decline in the price of gold coincided with the period when tail risks within the global economy began to diminish. Rewind to 2011.At that point of time, there was widespread fear that the euro zone might splinter. The US economy too was in the doldrums. But then the central banks intervened. They pumped in so much liquidity that all the risks within the global economy got papered over. As risk appetite returned, money began to flow out of gold and into risky assets like equities. Since then gold, a safe-haven asset, has underperformed while risky assets like equities have surged.

But does gold's current predicament mean that it will remain in the limbo for a long time? Chirag Mehta, fund manager, Quantum Gold Fund, does not think so. Central banks have pumped in so much liquidity that their actions have overshadowed all major concerns: worries related to the economy, and to debasement of currencies and inflation. But the underlying problems of high deficit and debt still persist. It is only a matter of time before these risks show up again. Fundamentally, he argues, the case for investing in gold still remains strong.

Lately, geopolitical upheavals in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria and other parts of the Middle East have prompted some buying of gold. But these concerns have been overshadowed by the US economy's strong performance. The strengthening of the dollar index has also put pressure on the price of gold. The softening of crude oil prices has also played a part. When the price of crude oil falls, it leads to lower inflation in importer countries like India, leading to lower allocation to gold by investors.

Now gold bugs are keenly watching interest rate movements in the US. Tapering, or withdrawal of quantitative easing, will end in October. There is widespread expectation that the first rate hike may happen six months later, say, in March-April 2015. Tightening in the US will, to some extent, be countered by loose monetary policy in Europe and Japan. Nonetheless, any net reduction in liquidity in the global financial system will cause distress in asset markets. If and when interest rates are raised, money will flow out of debt funds due to the capital losses that investors will face there. Rising interest rates will also be negative for equities. In that scenario, investors will move to gold.

Gold - The diversifier

The primary reason why you should still maintain an allocation to gold is that it is the best diversifier available to an Indian equity investor. Look at data between 1980 and now. In most years when equities have given negative returns, gold has done well. Gold is also a good store of value, which means that it tends to do well amid inflationary conditions. Despite the Indian central bank's best efforts, inflation continues to be a major bugbear for the Indian economy.

Gold also tends to rise when the Indian rupee weakens. Whenever foreign institutional investors (FIIs) withdraw money from India--as happened in 2008 after the global financial crisis, and again in mid-2013 after Ben Bernanke first spoke of tapering--the rupee weakens. And when the rupee weakens the price of gold rises.

Hence, investors should continue to have an 8-12% allocation to gold in their portfolios despite its current underperformance.

For further information contact Prajna Capital on 94 8300 8300 by leaving a missed call

Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300

Leave your comment with mail ID and we will answer them

OR

You can write back to us at

PrajnaCapital [at] Gmail [dot] Com

---------------------------------------------

Invest Mutual Funds Online

Invest Any Mutual Fund Online

Download Mutual Fund Application Forms from all AMCs

Download Mutual Any Fund Application Forms

---------------------------------------------

Best Performing Mutual Funds

    1. Largecap Funds Invest Online
      1. DSP BlackRock Top 100 Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Focused Blue Chip Fund
      3. Franklin India Bluechip
      4. ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund

B. Large and Midcap Funds Invest Online

      1. ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
      2. HDFC Top 200 Fund
      3. UTI Dividend Yield Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund
      5. Franklin India Prima

C. Mid and SmallCap Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund
      2. DSP BlackRock Small & Midcap Fund
      3. Sundaram Select Midcap
      4. IDFC Premier Equity Fund
      5. Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus
      6. SBI Emerging Businesses Fund
      7. HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund
      8. ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund

D. Small and MicroCap Funds Invest Online

      1. DSP BlackRock MicroCap Fund
      2. Franklin India Smaller Companies

E. Sector Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Banking Fund
      2. Reliance Banking Fund
      3. ICICI Prudential Banking and Financial Services Fund

F. Tax Saver Mutual Funds Invest Online

1. ICICI Prudential Tax Plan

2. HDFC Taxsaver

      1. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund
      2. Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund

G. Gold Mutual Funds Invest Online

      1. Relaince Gold Savings Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund
      3. HDFC Gold Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Gold

H. International funds Invest Online

1. Birla Sun Life International Equity Plan A

2. DSP BlackRock US Flexible Equity

3. FT India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities

4. ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity

5. Motilal Oswal MOSt Shares NASDAQ-100 ETF

Popular posts from this blog

National Savings Certificate

National Savings Certificate Here's everything you need to know about the 5-year savings scheme offered by the Government This is a 5-year small savings scheme of the government. From 1 July 2016, a National Savings Certificate (NSC) can be held in the electronic mode too. Physical pre-printed NSC certificates have been discontinued and replaced with Public Provident Fund-like passbooks. What's on offer The minimum amount you can invest in them is Rs100 and there is no upper limit. Under this scheme, all deposits up to Rs1.5 lakh qualify for deduction under section 80C of the Income-tax Act, 1961. The interest earned is taxable. You can invest in multiples of Rs 100. These certificates can be owned individually, jointly and also on behalf of minors. The interest rates for all small savings schemes are released on a quarterly basis. The effective rate for NSC from 1 October to 31 December is 8%. The interest is calculated on an annual compounding basis and is given along w...

Am you Required to E-file Tax Return?

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300   Am I Required to 'E-file' My Return? Yes, under the law you are required to e-file your return if your income for the year is Rs. 500,000 or more. Even if you are not required to e-file your return, it is advisable to do so for the following benefits: i) E-filing is environment friendly. ii) E-filing ensures certain validations before the return is filed. Therefore, e-returns are more accurate than the paper returns. iii) E-returns are processed faster than the paper returns. iv) E-filing can be done from the comfort of home/office and you do not have to stand in queue to e-file. v) E-returns can be accessed anytime from the tax department's e-filing portal. For further information contact Prajna Capit...

Mutual Fund Review: HDFC Index Sensex Plus

  In terms of size, HDFC Index Sensex Plus may be one of the smallest offerings from the HDFC stable. But that has not dampened its show, which has beaten the Sensex by a mile in overall returns   HDFC Index Sensex Plus is a passively managed diversified equity scheme with Sensex as its benchmark index. The fund also invests a small proportion of its equity portfolio in non-Sensex scrips. The scheme cannot boast of an impressive size and is one of the smallest in the HDFC basket with assets under management (AUM) of less than 60 crore. PERFORMANCE: Being passively managed and portfolio aligned to that of the benchmark, the performance of the index fund is expected to follow that of the benchmark and in this respect, it has not disappointed investors. Since its launch in July 2002, the fund has outperformed Sensex in overall returns by good margins.    While every 1,000 invested in HDFC Index Sensex Plus in July 2002 is worth 6,130 now, a similar amount invested in Sensex then wo...

Different types of Mutual Funds

You may not be comfortable investing in the stock market. It might not seem like your cup of tea. But you can start by investing in Mutual Funds. Many first-time investors invest in Mutual Funds. This is because they do not know how to invest in individual securities. Basic information on Mutual Funds People invest their money in stocks, bonds, and other securities through Mutual Funds. Each Fund has different schemes with specific objectives. Professional Fund Managers look after these schemes. Your Fund Manager could help you invest in a scheme that suits your financial goal. Functioning of Mutual Funds You could make money through Mutual Funds in different ways. A single Mutual Fund could hold many different stocks, bonds, and debentures. This minimizes the risk by spreading out your investment. You could earn dividends from stocks and interest from bonds. You could also earn capital by selling securities when their price increases. Usually, you could choose to sell your share any t...

IDFC - Long term infrastructure bonds - Tranche 2

IDFC - Long term infrastructure bonds What are infrastructure bonds? In 2010, the government introduced a new section 80CCF under the Income Tax Act, 1961 (" Income Tax Act ") to provide for income tax deductions for subscription to long-term infrastructure bonds and pursuant to that the Central Board of Direct Taxes passed Notification No. 48/2010/F.No.149/84/2010-SO(TPL) dated July 9, 2010. These long term infrastructure bonds offer an additional window of tax deduction of investments up to Rs. 20,000 for the financial year 2010-11. This deduction is over and above the Rs 1 lakh deduction available under sections 80C, 80CCC and 80CCD read with section 80CCE of the Income Tax Act. Infrastructure bonds help in intermediating the retail investor's savings into infrastructure sector directly. Long term infrastructure Bonds by IDFC IDFC issued an earlier tranche of these long term infrastructure bonds on November 12, 2010. This is the second public issue of long-te...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now