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Is It Possible To Predict Delisting Stocks?

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Delisting shares from the stock exchanges is a unique decision in a company's life. And it is almost impossible to forecast. These decisions depend greatly on the owners and management and their way of thinking. At least, one can't predict the timing of a delisting offer.


Here we have put together a group of companies with certain common parameters that make them more likely to opt for delisting than others. These are MNC associates with parent companies operating overseas. Secondly, and most importantly, the promoters hold more than 80% in the Indian arms. Thirdly, they don't need to raise capital in India. Or, in other words, being listed in India doesn't serve them much purpose.


With market regulator Sebi or the Securities and Exchange Board of India mandating that all listed companies have to increase public shareholding to a minimum 25% by June 2013, these companies have to take a conscious call sooner or later on whether to reduce promoter holding or go for delisting.

Why MNCs Are More Likely To Delist

Compared to domestic companies MNC associates in India are more likely to choose to delist when faced with the dilemma of whether to dilute promoter stake to meet local regulations or delist. Most of these companies were listed in India not due to a need to raise capital, but more to meet the then prevailing FDI norms. For such companies complying with the cumbersome and time consuming rules and regulations of Sebi and the stock exchanges makes little sense. Be it fund raising or M&As, any major decision takes substantial time for a listed company compared to an unlisted one. Finally, the current depressed market conditions offer an ideal opportunity to delist.


This is not to say MNCs are the only delisting candidates. In fact, over a period of time a number of unexpected Indian companies such as Nirma and Binani Cements have gone ahead with delisting processes. In a number of cases, acquisition by a foreign player has proved a prelude to delisting. For example, Sparsh BPO. However, MNCs are the more predictable candidates.

 

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