Skip to main content

Gold: What Can Trigger the Inevitable?

A stronger dollar or rising interest rates could derail the epic yellow metal mania

 

Before you sell that last piece of jewellery, keep in mind that the gold price will not go up indefinitely. There are number of reasons why it might crash.
If you're over weighted in gold or commodities, the warning is the same: A stronger dollar, strengthening US economy or rising interest rates could derail the epic yellow metal mania. Who knows? Congress could even reach an agreement to clear up its balance sheet and pay down its debt.


What are the chances of any of this happening? It's beyond the limits of my minuscule, clouded crystal ball, which is about the size of a pin-head.

 

Nevertheless, you should prepare your portfolio for any number of eventualities, which can be easily accomplished with exchange-traded funds. Gold is troublesome in my book because it really isn't an investment. It's a reserve currency of sorts that's heavily traded by institutional investors. It doesn't pay any dividends or interest and is bought in times of widespread fear.


The savviest traders buy gold as a hedge against the dollar. In the past few years, it's also been a bulwark against the Euro as well, which has been bruised by sovereign debt woes in Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Is the Euro financial fizzle over? I don't think so, but it's still not a reason to load up on gold. The clearest threat to gold's reign as the reserve currency of nervous Nellies is a possible rebound of the dollar. In a speculative portfolio, you can go long on worldwide stocks through a fund like the Vanguard Total World Stock Index ETF, own gold through the SPDR fund and go either way on the dollar.


Stick to your long-term goals. Only professional traders who have the discipline to make quick trades will get out and make a profit. If you try to time or short any vehicle, you'll be stuck holding the bag. If you need income, forget about the rest of the world and find the safest investments at the lowest possible cost. Your second goal would be to protect yourself against loss of purchasing power
Before you pawn your wedding ring, keep in mind that in real times of crisis the metal won't replace food or water. As Voltaire reminded us in 'Candide', it would be better to tend to our gardens.

 

— John F Wasik/Reuters

 
 

-----------------------------------------------------------------

 

Also, know how to buy mutual funds online:

 

1) DSP BlackRock Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/05/buying-dsp-blackrock-mutual-funds.html

 

2) Reliance Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-reliance-mutual-funds-online.html

 

3) Reliance Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/07/buying-hdfc-mutual-funds-online.html

 

4) Sundaram Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/07/buying-sundaram-mutual-funds-online.html

 

5) Birla Sunlife Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-birla-sunlife-mutual-funds.html

 

6) UTI Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-uti-mutual-funds-online.html

  

7) SBI Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-sbi-mutual-funds-online.html

 

8) Edelweiss Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-edelweiss-mutual-funds-online.html

 

9) IDFC Mutual Funds:

http://prajnacapital.blogspot.com/2011/06/buying-idfc-mutual-funds-online.html

 

 

Popular posts from this blog

All about "Derivatives"

What are derivatives? Derivatives are financial instruments, which as the name suggests, derive their value from another asset — called the underlying. What are the typical underlying assets? Any asset, whose price is dynamic, probably has a derivative contract today. The most popular ones being stocks, indices, precious metals, commodities, agro products, currencies, etc. Why were they invented? In an increasingly dynamic world, prices of virtually all assets keep changing, thereby exposing participants to price risks. Hence, derivatives were invented to negate these price fluctuations. For example, a wheat farmer expects to sell his crop at the current price of Rs 10/kg and make profits of Rs 2/kg. But, by the time his crop is ready, the price of wheat may have gone down to Rs 5/kg, making him sell his crop at a loss of Rs 3/kg. In order to avoid this, he may enter into a forward contract, agreeing to sell wheat at Rs 10/ kg, right at the outset. So, even if the price of wheat falls ...
Read more

ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund

 ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund scheme seeks to generate long-term capital appreciation and current income by investing in a portfolio that is investing in equities and related securities as well as fixed income and money market securities. The approximate allocation to equity would be in the range of 60-80 per cent with a minimum of 51 per cent, and the approximate debt allocation is 40-49 per cent, with a minimum of 20 per cent. An impressive show in the last couple of years has propelled this fund from a three-star to a four-star rating. The fund has traditionally featured a high equity allocation, hovering at well over 70 per cent, which is higher than the allocations of the peers. But in the last one year, the allocation has been moderated from 78-79 per cent levels to 66-67 per cent of the portfolio. ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund appears to practise some degree of tactical allocation based on market valuations. Within equities, well over two-thirds of the allocation is parked i...
Read more

Equity investors should track market developments

The stock markets have been volatile over the last few days. They are in a sideways movement and trying to find the bottom after a fall of 20 percent a week ago. The market sentiments are not very positive at the moment and the recent developments are expected to dampen them further. Globally, governments and central banks are trying to cut rates and announce packages to improve business sentiments. These are some of the major developments in the markets last few month: A) Global On the global front, another large US bank went into a financial crisis. The US government took quick measures to avoid the spread negative sentiments in the markets. The US government announced a bail-out package and agreed to shoulder the losses on the bank's risky assets. China announced a large cut in interest rates and reserve ratio to boost the investor sentiments in the markets. Recently, the World Bank announced China's growth rate next year will come down to 7.5 percent. The European ...
Read more

Fortis Mutual Fund

Fortis Mutual Fund, a relatively new player, it is still to prove its case and define its position in the industry. In September 2004, it came onto the scene with a bang - three debt schemes, one MIP and one diversified equity scheme. And investors flocked to it. Going by the standards at that time, it had a great start in terms of garnering money. Mopping up over Rs 2,000 crore in five schemes was not bad at all. The fund house has not been too successful in the equity arena, in terms of assets. Though it has seven equity schemes, it is debt and cash funds that corner the major portion of the assets. Most of the schemes are pretty new, and the two that have been around for a while have a 3-star rating each. The last two were Fortis Sustainable Development (April 2007), which received a rather poor response, and Fortis China India (October 2007). Fortis Flexi Debt has been one of the better performing funds, after a dismal performance in 2005. It currently has a 5-star rating. None ...
Read more

Birla SunLife Frontline Equity Fund

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Buy Gold Mutual Funds Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India)   BSL Frontline Equity Fund   Strategy The fund's investment strategy is in line with the BSE 200. This way its allocation is sprinkled across the sectors which brings in stability. Allocation to large caps is close to 75 per cent while market gyrations of last 2 years have seen its allocation to mid- and small-caps come down. Though the fund has the mandate to pick stocks from outside the ambit of BSE 200, it has largely stuck with the benchmark with just 10 to 20 per cent of the investment going outside it over the past 5 years. Sector-wise allocation though is mostly in proportion to the benchmark.   Its dominant sectors include automobiles, FMCG, financial, technology and energy. Banking and FMCG performed well last year which is reflected in performance. Its stock p...
Read more
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now