Skip to main content

12 principles of speculation strategies in stocks

Enumerated below are twelve major principles and sixteen minor ones with brief comments on each of them:

First Major Axiom: On Risk
“Worry is not a sickness but sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.”

Adventure is what makes life worth living. Every occupation has its aches and pains. The rich have to worry about their wealth. But, if there is a choice between remaining poor and worry-free, the selection is obvious. It is better to be wealthy and worried than to be worry-free and poor.

Minor Axiom I: “Always play for Meaningful Stakes.”
If you invest Rs. 1000 and your investment doubles, you have only Rs. 2000 and are still poor! So if you want to be rich, you must increase your stakes.

Minor Axiom II: “Resist the allure of diversification”.
Firstly
, diversification negates the earlier principle of playing for meaningful stakes.
Secondly, it may keep you where you began so that your gains on few will cancel out the losses on the other few.
Thirdly, it entails keeping track of many more items leading to confusion and occasional panic.

Second Major Axiom: On Greed
“Always take your profit too soon.”

Lay investors having made the investment tend to stay too long on it out of greed for higher profits. But, one must conquer this weakness and book profits soon. If one is less greedy for more profits one will take in more. Don't stretch your luck. In effect, it suggests, SELL sooner than later.

Minor Axiom III: "Decide in advance what gain you want from the venture, and when you get it, get out. Decide where the finish line is before you start the race".
This is self explanatory and hence needs no comment.

Third Major Axiom: On Hope
“When the ship starts to sink, don't pray, jump”
This axiom is about what to do when things go wrong. Learn how to accept a loss. One should accept small losses to protect oneself from big ones. When the market starts falling, sell, take your money and run!

Minor Axiom IV: "Accept small losses cheerfully as a fact of life."
Expect to experience several smaller losses while awaiting a large gain.

Fourth Major Axiom: On Forecasts
"Human behavior cannot be predicted. Distrust anyone who claims to know the future, however dimly."

The story of a monkey throwing darts on the stock exchange page of a newspaper, to select the companies to buy, and coming out a winner is too well known to be recited. Recent news from London, further proves the truth, when an untrained chemist's stock selections, in a widely publicized contest open to all and sundry, registered higher appreciation over several full time highly qualified fund managers' well researched selections. Human events cannot be predicted by any method by anyone and, hence, don't trust anybody's predictions.

Fifth Major Axiom: On Patterns
"Chaos is not dangerous until it begins to look orderly."
The truth is that the world of money is a world of patternless disorder and utter chaos. This axiom is a commentary on Technical Analysis - a branch of investment strategies based on charts and patterns. The fact is, no formula that ignores own intuition's dominant role can ever be trusted.

Minor Axiom V: "Beware the Historian's Trap".
This is based on the age old but entirely unwarranted belief that history repeats itself.

Minor Axiom VI: "Beware the Chartist's Illusion".
Life is never a straight line. Let us not be hypnotised by a line on a chart.

Minor Axiom VII: "Beware the Co-relation and Causality Delusions."
Don't be taken in by coincidences in the market.

Minor Axiom VIII: "Beware the Gambler's Fallacy."
There is a gambling theory which suggests that one should put small stakes initially and test their luck, and if these turn out well one should go for big stakes on the dice table. But this is not correct. It only shows that winning streaks happen. But nothing is orderly about it. You can't know how long it will last or when it will strike.

Sixth Major Axiom: On Mobility
"A putting down roots. They impede motion".

You may feel socially comforting to have roots. But in financial life, roots can cost a lot of money. Have a flexible approach while investing. This axiom implies a state of mind.

Minor Axiom IX: "Do not become trapped in a souring venture because of sentiments like loyalty and nostalgia."
Do not develop emotional attachment to your investment. You should feel free to sell when desired.

Minor Axiom X: "Never hesitate to abandon a venture if something more attractive comes into view."
Never get attached to things, but only to people. Otherwise it hits your mobility. Never get rooted in an investment. You should remain footloose, ready to jump away from trouble or into a profitable opportunity as and when circumstances demand.

Seventh Major Axiom: On Intuition
'A hunch can be trusted if it can be explained.'
A good hunch is something that you know but you don't know how to recognise it. When a hunch hits you, try to locate some data in your mind for any familiarity. Then only should you act on it.

Minor Axiom XI: 'Never confuse a hunch with a hope'.
Be highly skeptical. Examine every hunch with extra care.

Eighth Major Axiom: On Religion and The Occulture
'It is unlikely that god's plan for the universe includes making you rich'.
You can't only pray that you should be made rich. You will have to work at becoming rich. Mere prayers will not suffice.

Minor Axiom XII: 'If Astrology worked, all astrologers would be rich.'
This is self explanatory. Don't trust predictions.

Minor Axiom XIII: 'As superstition need not be exorcised, it can be enjoyed provided it is kept in its place.'
In your day-to-day financial matters, act rationally. But, when buying a lottery ticket, give it a full play to amuse yourself.

Ninth Major Axiom: On Optimism and Pessimism
'Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.'
In poker and a lot of other speculative worlds, things are never as bad as they seem - most of the times they are WORSE. Confidence comes not from expecting the best but from knowing how you will handle the worst. Optimism can be treacherous because it makes you feel good.

Tenth Major Axiom: On Consensus
'Disregard the majority opinion. It is probably wrong'.

It is likely that the Truth has been found out by a few rather than by many.

Minor Axiom XIV: 'Never follow speculative fads. Often, the best time to buy something is when nobody else wants it.'
This is the best way to get a good stock cheaply.

Eleventh Major Axiom: On Stubbornness
'If it doesn't pay off the first time, forget it'.
If at first you don't succeed, try and try again and you will succeed in the end. This is good advice for spiders and kings but not for ordinary persons with regard to financial matters. Every trial is a costly error.

Minor Axiom XV: 'Never try to save a bad investment by averaging down.'
If the price of the stock goes down after your purchase don't buy more to bring down' the average cost of your total holding. Investigate why the price went down rather than put good money in a bad bargain.

Twelfth Major Axiom: On Planning
'Long-range plans engender the dangerous belief that the future is under control. It is important never to take your own long-range plans, or other people's seriously.'
This is self explanatory and hence needs no comment.

Minor Axiom XVI: 'Shun long-term investments.'
If possible try to a long-term investments.

The author noticed that the Swiss group never took a long-term view of their stock purchases. They always sold out as soon as their targeted profit was achieved.

Popular posts from this blog

Real Returns in Investing

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300 Real Returns in Investing     A Anil Singh (name changed), 44, works with a private company and believes in investing his entire savings in fixed deposits. His financials from the year 2000 till date is given in the table. Anil's savings in FDs gave him an average return of around 8%. The total amount saved over the 174 months (From January 2000 to June 2014) is Rs 49.80 lakh. The value of his investment today is around Rs 66.71 lakh. Naveen Singh (name changed), 44, works in a similar profile like Anil. However his expenses were on the higher side. His financials are as in the table. Naveen invested only in equities. The total amount saved over the 174 months (From January 2000 to June 2014) is Rs 38.40 lakh. The v...

Budget 2014 Highlights for Saving

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300   The new finance minister Arun Jaitley has just presented his first budget. What measures does the budget contain that will specifically impact savers and investors? Here they are: 1. Housing loans exemption for self-occupied properties increased to Rs2 lakh: Earlier this amount was Rs1.5 lakhs. This move barely keeps pace with the inflation in asset values.   2. Investment limit under 80 (C) increased to Rs1.5 lakh: This is a good move again and offers some relief to taxpayers.   3. IT exemption increased to Rs2.5 lakh, Rs3 lakh for senior citizens. This comes as a minor relief for taxpayers.   4. Annual PPF ceiling to be enhanced to Rs1.5 lakh, from Rs1 lakh: This is in tune with the change in 80C.   5. Long term capital gains tax for debt funds has been rai...

ICICI Prudential MIP 25 - Invest Online

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300   ICICI Prudential MIP 25     (CRISIL Rank 2)   This scheme was launched March 2004. Please see the chart below for the one, two, three and five years annualized returns from this scheme. The minimum investment in the scheme is Rs 5,000. The asset allocation of the portfolio is 24% equity, 72% debt and 4% cash equivalent and others. Please see the chart below for the monthly dividends declared by the scheme, on a per unit basis, over the last 5 years.   For further information contact Prajna Capital on 94 8300 8300 by leaving a missed call Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300 Leave your comment with mai...

Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - Invest Online

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300   Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund   While the universe of small-cap stocks in India is vast, there are very few equity funds which take on the task of sifting through this space for good long-term bets. Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund has managed this with aplomb. What we like about this fund is its significant out-performance of its category and benchmark over the last four years, and its ability to moderate portfolio risk despite investing in the riskiest segment of the equity market. This fund's stock selection strategy, like that of Franklin India Prima Fund is focused on finding companies that generate positive cash flows across business cycles. High return on investment and manageable leverage are also filtering criteria. Says R. Janakiraman, fund ma...

How to open a Capital Gains Account?

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300   How to open a Capital Gains Account? You can open a capital gains account in an authorized bank. The Government has notified 28 banks which can open the Capital Gains Account on behalf of the Government. You have to apply for opening the account by filling out the required application form (Form A) and submit proof of address, PAN card and photograph. You cannot withdraw funds from a capital gains account using a cheque book or ATM, like you do in your normal savings bank account. There are procedures to be followed to withdraw funds from the capital gains account. Investment in Specified Bonds Section 54EC of Income Act provide that if the seller invests whole or part of capital gains arising from the sale of asset in specified Capital Gains, within a period of six months of the ...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now