Skip to main content

Personal Finance - Inflation v/s Volatility

Mr. Iyer made very clear to his investment advisor that he does not like taking risk. A normal thought that would cross any advisor’s mind when an investor states what Mr. Iyer said is either that the investor does not want to risk his capital and wants to ensure that his capital remains intact or the second thought is that the investor does not want to face the risk of running out or falling short of money when he is nearing his financial goal. While a lay investor might struggle to put both the above in perspective, reality is there can be vast difference in perseverance of risk.



When normally an investor opts for so called safe investment avenues such as fixed deposit, he is protecting himself against the risk of volatility. He seeks comfort under the disguise shelter of safety of capital. However at the very same moment he is risking himself against the risk of losing out to inflation in the long run. His investments earn negative real rate of return. This means he may not have enough money to fund his long-term financial goal.



Most investors cannot withstand transparency. When they invest in equity market, they can literally see value of their investments rising or falling based on market condition. Volatility scares them and they find equity investing risky. In case of fixed deposit they do not see the hidden inflation, which is eroding actual value. They can only see that their principal has remained intact. Therefore they believe their investments are free of risk.



Inflation is much larger, long term and hidden risk compared to volatility. Volatility is transparent. Also over a long period of time impact of volatility reduces.

Whenever an investor decides to seek shelter from risk, he should make himself specific. Does he want shelter from volatility and hence he is seeking protection of capital or is he willing to face volatility in short term but in the longer run wants to ensure that his corpus outgrows inflation and that he has enough to meet his financial goals?



Following table shows value of Rs 1 lakh, if we were to get 4% p.a. less return than inflation i.e. 4% p.a. negative return.

Current Value - Rs 100,000
Rate of Inflation - 4%
Value After Years - 5 Years - Rs 82,193
- 10 Years - Rs 67,557
- 15 Years - Rs 55,527
- 20 Years - Rs 45,639

We notice that as time increases the actual value of Rs 1 lakh is eroding. Longer the money stays in an avenue that is losing to inflation more risky is the investment.



On the other hand, the following table shows value of Rs 1 lakh, which is only generating 4% p.a. over and above rate of inflation.

Current Value - Rs 100,000
Rate of Inflation - 4%
Value After Years - 5 Years - Rs 121,665
- 10 Years - Rs 148,024
- 15 Years - Rs 180,094
- 20 Years - Rs 219,112

Mere 4% p.a. positive or negative return can generate drastically different results.

If we are saving for a financial goal that is less than 2/3 years away opt for safety of principal - even if it means losing to inflation. On the other hand if you are saving for financial goal which is more than 7/9 years away go for appreciation even if it means withstanding volatility in near term. For an interim goal invest in both kinds of asset classes.

Popular posts from this blog

Tata Mutual Fund

Being a part of the Tata group, the fund has the backing of a very trusted brand name with strong retail connect. While the current CEO has done an excellent job in leveraging the Tata brand name to AMC's advantage, it is ironic that this was just not capitalised on at the start. Incorporated in 1995, Tata Mutual Fund remained an 'also-ran' fund house for around eight years. Till March 2003, it had a little over Rs 1,000 crore in assets and 19 AMCs were ahead of it. But soon after that the equation changed. It was the fastest growing fund house in 2004 and 2005. During these two years, it aggressively launched six equity funds, two debt funds and one MIP. The fund house as of now stands at No. 8 in terms of asset size. This fund house has a lot to offer by way of choice. And, it also has a number of well performing schemes. Tata Pure Equity, Tata Equity PE and Tata Infrastructure are all good funds. It also has quite a few good debt funds. The funds of Tata AMC are known to...

UTI Mutual Fund

Even though only a few of UTI’s funds are great performers, this public sector fund house has many advantages that its rivals do not. It has a huge base of retail equity investors and a vast distribution network. As a business, it looks stronger than ever, especially in the aftermath of credit crunch. UTI is, by a large margin, the most profitable fund company in the country. This is not surprising, since managing equity funds is more profitable than debt. Its conservative approach and stable parentage is likely to make it look more attractive to investors in times to come. UTI’s big problem is the dragging performance that many of its equity funds suffer from. In recent times, the management has made a concerted effort to improve performance. However, these moves have coincided with a disastrous phase in the stock markets and that has made it impossible to judge whether the overhaul will eventually be a success. UTI’s top performers are a few index funds, some hybrid funds and its inf...

Salary planning Article

1. The salary (basic + DA) should be low. The rest should come by way of such allowances on which the employer pays FBT and you don't pay any tax thereon. 2. Interest paid on housing loan is deductible u/s 24 up to Rs 1.5 lakh (Rs 150,000) on self-occupied property and without any limit on a commercial or rented house. 3. The repayment of housing loan from specified sources is also deductible irrespective of whether the house is self-occupied or given on rent within the overall ceiling of Rs 1 lakh of Sec. 80C. 4. Where the accommodation provided to the employee is taken on lease by the employer, the perk value is the actual amount of lease rental or 20 per cent of the salary, whichever is lower. Understandably, if the house belongs to a family member who is at a low or nil tax zone the family benefits. Yes, the maximum benefit accrues when the rent is over 20 per cent of the salary. 5. A chauffeur driven motor car provided by the employer has no perk value. True, the company would...

8 Investing Strategy

The stock market ‘meltdown’ witnessed since the start of 2005 (notwithstanding the recent marginal recovery) has once again brought to the forefront an inherent weakness existent in our markets. This is the fact that FIIs, indisputably and almost entirely, dominate the Indian stock market sentiments and consequently the market movements. In this article, we make an attempt to list down a few points that would aid an investor in mitigating the risks and curtailing the losses during times of volatility as large investors (read FIIs) enter and exit stocks. Read on Manage greed/fear: This is an important point, which every investor must keep in mind owing to its great influencing ability in equity investment decisions. This point simply means that in a bull run - control the greed factor, which could entice you, the investor, to compromise with your investment principles. By this we mean that while an investor could get lured into investing in penny and small-cap stocks owing to their eye-...

Debt Funds - Check The Expiry Date

This time we give you an insight into something that most debt fund investors would be unaware of, the Average Portfolio Maturity. As we all know, debt funds invest in bonds and securities. These instruments mature over a certain period of time, which is called maturity. The maturity is the length of time till the principal amount is returned to the security-holder or bond-holder. A debt fund invests in a number of such instruments and each of these instruments would be having different maturity times. Hence, the fund calculates a weighted average maturity, which would give a fair idea of the fund's maturity period. For example, if a fund owns three bonds of 2-year (Rs 30,000), 3-year (Rs 10,000) and 5-year (Rs 20,000) maturities, its weighted average maturity would be 3.17 years. What is the big deal about average maturity then, you may ask. Well, knowing a fund's average maturity is important because it tells you how sensitive a fund is to the change in interest rates. It is ...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now