Skip to main content

Personal Finance - Inflation v/s Volatility

Mr. Iyer made very clear to his investment advisor that he does not like taking risk. A normal thought that would cross any advisor’s mind when an investor states what Mr. Iyer said is either that the investor does not want to risk his capital and wants to ensure that his capital remains intact or the second thought is that the investor does not want to face the risk of running out or falling short of money when he is nearing his financial goal. While a lay investor might struggle to put both the above in perspective, reality is there can be vast difference in perseverance of risk.



When normally an investor opts for so called safe investment avenues such as fixed deposit, he is protecting himself against the risk of volatility. He seeks comfort under the disguise shelter of safety of capital. However at the very same moment he is risking himself against the risk of losing out to inflation in the long run. His investments earn negative real rate of return. This means he may not have enough money to fund his long-term financial goal.



Most investors cannot withstand transparency. When they invest in equity market, they can literally see value of their investments rising or falling based on market condition. Volatility scares them and they find equity investing risky. In case of fixed deposit they do not see the hidden inflation, which is eroding actual value. They can only see that their principal has remained intact. Therefore they believe their investments are free of risk.



Inflation is much larger, long term and hidden risk compared to volatility. Volatility is transparent. Also over a long period of time impact of volatility reduces.

Whenever an investor decides to seek shelter from risk, he should make himself specific. Does he want shelter from volatility and hence he is seeking protection of capital or is he willing to face volatility in short term but in the longer run wants to ensure that his corpus outgrows inflation and that he has enough to meet his financial goals?



Following table shows value of Rs 1 lakh, if we were to get 4% p.a. less return than inflation i.e. 4% p.a. negative return.

Current Value - Rs 100,000
Rate of Inflation - 4%
Value After Years - 5 Years - Rs 82,193
- 10 Years - Rs 67,557
- 15 Years - Rs 55,527
- 20 Years - Rs 45,639

We notice that as time increases the actual value of Rs 1 lakh is eroding. Longer the money stays in an avenue that is losing to inflation more risky is the investment.



On the other hand, the following table shows value of Rs 1 lakh, which is only generating 4% p.a. over and above rate of inflation.

Current Value - Rs 100,000
Rate of Inflation - 4%
Value After Years - 5 Years - Rs 121,665
- 10 Years - Rs 148,024
- 15 Years - Rs 180,094
- 20 Years - Rs 219,112

Mere 4% p.a. positive or negative return can generate drastically different results.

If we are saving for a financial goal that is less than 2/3 years away opt for safety of principal - even if it means losing to inflation. On the other hand if you are saving for financial goal which is more than 7/9 years away go for appreciation even if it means withstanding volatility in near term. For an interim goal invest in both kinds of asset classes.

Popular posts from this blog

Term insurance

Term insurance may not be the most-marketed product by life cos, but it’s a must-have in today’s risk-prone lifestyle WHEN was the last time your insurance agent sold a term plan to you? It’s not a very popular policy among agents, as their commission in absolute terms is low because of the low-premium. Just as agents have their self interests in mind while selling, you need to make your own decision about your insurance needs, which are unique to your family. COST ADVANTAGE A term plan is pure protection. It is the cheapest type of life insurance policy. But what you see might not be what you get, most insurers have a range of health parameters for standard rates. If any of your health parameters — weight, blood pressure for instance fall outside this range, you will pay more. For some companies, the standard range is very narrow. EARLY BIRD GAINS A 30-year-old will pay 15% more premium than a 25-year-old. At 40, the premium is double of what is applicable for a 25-year old, points...

ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund

 ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund scheme seeks to generate long-term capital appreciation and current income by investing in a portfolio that is investing in equities and related securities as well as fixed income and money market securities. The approximate allocation to equity would be in the range of 60-80 per cent with a minimum of 51 per cent, and the approximate debt allocation is 40-49 per cent, with a minimum of 20 per cent. An impressive show in the last couple of years has propelled this fund from a three-star to a four-star rating. The fund has traditionally featured a high equity allocation, hovering at well over 70 per cent, which is higher than the allocations of the peers. But in the last one year, the allocation has been moderated from 78-79 per cent levels to 66-67 per cent of the portfolio. ICICI Prudential Balanced Fund appears to practise some degree of tactical allocation based on market valuations. Within equities, well over two-thirds of the allocation is parked i...

Reliance Life Insurance company introduces 17 ULIPs

Reliance Life Insurance company has announced the launch 17 unit linked insurance plans (Ulip). The new range of Ulips encompasses several categories including child plans, pension, protection, savings and investment, which are available in two versions — basic plan with tenure of over 15 years and another with a 10-year-term. According to an official release, these Ulips are primarily targeted at customers paying a premium of over Rs 10,000. All these schemes come with features such as capital guarantee, loyalty additions, higher internal rate of return and several fund options. The plans also offer riders, including payment of lump sum on diagnosis of specified critical illnesses, surgeries and additional life cover. Policyholders have the option of choosing between automatic asset allocation, systematic transfer plan and return shield options. Recently, the company launched two traditional insurance plans — Reliance Jan Samriddhi plan (RJSP) and Reliance Traditional Super InvestAssu...

TDS Rate and Personal Account Number(PAN)

    The TDS rate doubles to 20% from 10% if you fail to mention your Personal Account Number   IF you run a glance through your pay slip, you will come across something called TDS, which is tax deduction at source. In most cases, the employer deducts this amount at the time of payment of salary itself and pays the total tax amount to the government on behalf of all the employees. If you are a self- employed or practicing professional s, you have to pay this amount yourself.    Tax deducted at source is one of the modes of income tax collection by the government. Under the income-tax laws, income tax at specified rates is required to be deducted while making certain payments.    The rate of deduction of tax at source on interest and rent payment is 10%. For salary payments, the employers deduct income tax at source on a monthly basis after computing income tax liability on estimated annual taxable income of the employee. Tax benefits on housing loan, investments, etc are consid...

L&T Tax Advantage

Best SIP Funds to Invest Online   The fund follows a growth approach to investing in quality stocks that have a large-cap tilt This large-cap tilted ELSS has fared consistently and fared better than its benchmark by posting a higher margin of outperformance. The fund follows a growth approach to investing in quality stocks that have a large-cap tilt, which is evident in its portfolio. The portfolio is further well diversified across market capitalisation and sectors with over 60 stocks finding a place in it. The upside with this fund is the fact that it has witnessed both down and up cycles of the market to come across as a winner in the long run. Do not doubt the fund based on its size and a few mediocre years of performance, because when analysing its rolling three year returns, the fund's performance stands out to qualify as a must have ELSS in one's portfolio. Stay invested through the lock-in and there are chances of benefiting from returns as well as tax savings will prov...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now