Improvement in Governments fiscal position |
System Liquidity to increase |
Inflation expected to fall further |
Growth to be positively impacted over medium to long term with near term hiccups |
We have been positive on Indian bonds for a while now with the view that monetary easing cycle will continue and better liquidity in the banking system will push bond yields lower. With the Governments latest announcement of de-monetizing higher denomination notes, our view further got strengthened. We expect further easing in terms of 50-75 bps of rate cuts in the near future.
Macroeconomic factors such as lower inflation and better fiscal will aid bond markets. On the other side, it is likely that the RBI will have to defer open market operation purchases to infuse liquidity into the banking system. That said, we believe rate cuts, better liquidity, better medium-term fiscal and disinflationary impulse should outweigh the lack of OMO purchases.
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