Skip to main content

Do not exit completely from gold in your portfolio

 

Gold in your portfolio

 

 





The decline in the price of gold coincided with the period when tail risks within the global economy began to diminish. Rewind to 2011.At that point of time, there was widespread fear that the euro zone might splinter. The US economy too was in the doldrums. But then the central banks intervened. They pumped in so much liquidity that all the risks within the global economy got papered over. As risk appetite returned, money began to flow out of gold and into risky assets like equities. Since then gold, a safe-haven asset, has underperformed while risky assets like equities have surged.

But does gold's current predicament mean that it will remain in the limbo for a long time? Chirag Mehta, fund manager, Quantum Gold Fund, does not think so. Central banks have pumped in so much liquidity that their actions have overshadowed all major concerns: worries related to the economy, and to debasement of currencies and inflation. But the underlying problems of high deficit and debt still persist. It is only a matter of time before these risks show up again. Fundamentally, he argues, the case for investing in gold still remains strong.

Lately, geopolitical upheavals in Ukraine, Iraq, Syria and other parts of the Middle East have prompted some buying of gold. But these concerns have been overshadowed by the US economy's strong performance. The strengthening of the dollar index has also put pressure on the price of gold. The softening of crude oil prices has also played a part. When the price of crude oil falls, it leads to lower inflation in importer countries like India, leading to lower allocation to gold by investors.

Now gold bugs are keenly watching interest rate movements in the US. Tapering, or withdrawal of quantitative easing, will end in October. There is widespread expectation that the first rate hike may happen six months later, say, in March-April 2015. Tightening in the US will, to some extent, be countered by loose monetary policy in Europe and Japan. Nonetheless, any net reduction in liquidity in the global financial system will cause distress in asset markets. If and when interest rates are raised, money will flow out of debt funds due to the capital losses that investors will face there. Rising interest rates will also be negative for equities. In that scenario, investors will move to gold.

Gold - The diversifier

The primary reason why you should still maintain an allocation to gold is that it is the best diversifier available to an Indian equity investor. Look at data between 1980 and now. In most years when equities have given negative returns, gold has done well. Gold is also a good store of value, which means that it tends to do well amid inflationary conditions. Despite the Indian central bank's best efforts, inflation continues to be a major bugbear for the Indian economy.

Gold also tends to rise when the Indian rupee weakens. Whenever foreign institutional investors (FIIs) withdraw money from India--as happened in 2008 after the global financial crisis, and again in mid-2013 after Ben Bernanke first spoke of tapering--the rupee weakens. And when the rupee weakens the price of gold rises.

Hence, investors should continue to have an 8-12% allocation to gold in their portfolios despite its current underperformance.

For further information contact Prajna Capital on 94 8300 8300 by leaving a missed call

Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300

Leave your comment with mail ID and we will answer them

OR

You can write back to us at

PrajnaCapital [at] Gmail [dot] Com

---------------------------------------------

Invest Mutual Funds Online

Invest Any Mutual Fund Online

Download Mutual Fund Application Forms from all AMCs

Download Mutual Any Fund Application Forms

---------------------------------------------

Best Performing Mutual Funds

    1. Largecap Funds Invest Online
      1. DSP BlackRock Top 100 Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Focused Blue Chip Fund
      3. Franklin India Bluechip
      4. ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund

B. Large and Midcap Funds Invest Online

      1. ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
      2. HDFC Top 200 Fund
      3. UTI Dividend Yield Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund
      5. Franklin India Prima

C. Mid and SmallCap Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund
      2. DSP BlackRock Small & Midcap Fund
      3. Sundaram Select Midcap
      4. IDFC Premier Equity Fund
      5. Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus
      6. SBI Emerging Businesses Fund
      7. HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund
      8. ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund

D. Small and MicroCap Funds Invest Online

      1. DSP BlackRock MicroCap Fund
      2. Franklin India Smaller Companies

E. Sector Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Banking Fund
      2. Reliance Banking Fund
      3. ICICI Prudential Banking and Financial Services Fund

F. Tax Saver Mutual Funds Invest Online

1. ICICI Prudential Tax Plan

2. HDFC Taxsaver

      1. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund
      2. Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund

G. Gold Mutual Funds Invest Online

      1. Relaince Gold Savings Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund
      3. HDFC Gold Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Gold

H. International funds Invest Online

1. Birla Sun Life International Equity Plan A

2. DSP BlackRock US Flexible Equity

3. FT India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities

4. ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity

5. Motilal Oswal MOSt Shares NASDAQ-100 ETF

Popular posts from this blog

Save Tax With Mutual Funds

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Buy Gold Mutual Funds Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300       Mutual funds are ideal as long term investment avenues for retail investors. To encourage investments in this avenue, the Government of India offers investors a spate of tax benefits thus ensuring maximum benefit from mutual funds held beyond a year. Sample some of the key benefits and refer to the table for a detailed list of tax rates for different types of schemes ·        Avail deductions under Sec 80C of the Income Tax Act by investing up to a maximum of Rs. 1 lakh in designated Equity Linked Savings Schemes (ELSS). Such investments have a compulsory lock in period of 3 years. ·        First time retail investors in equity with a gross total income of up to Rs. 12 lakh can invest up to Rs. 50,000 in specific MF schemes un...
Read more

How much to invest in gold ?

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms Buy Gold Mutual Funds Call 0 94 8300 8300 (India) Let your motivation dictate the share of the yellow metal in your portfolio Enough has been said and written about gold as an investment option. The latest argument is that the craze for gold among Indian households is endangering our country's balance of payments. The policymakers are busy trying to find ways of discouraging investment in gold, but if households keep the common good in mind, they would be paying the market price for gas cylinders as they do for, say, their mobile phone bills. After all, private decisions are driven by private motives. So, how should a household look at gold from its own perspective? Gold is primarily acquired for its merit as a store of value. Even if the worst crisis hits a family, the gold that it holds could be put to use anywhere in th...
Read more

Buying a Used Car

Invest in Mutual Funds Online Download Mutual Fund Application Forms   Pre-owned car can make sense in these inflationary times. But buying one can be trickier than getting a new vehicle    If you are thinking of buying a car but are worried about the rising inflation and higher EMIs eating into your budget, you should consider buying a used car. For those learning to drive, the general advice is that they should hone their driving skills in a used car. However, buying a used car is not an easy task. Though a used car costs less, there are a lot of aspects to be considered while buying one. You should do your due diligence before buying such a car. For example, two cars of the same model would carry two different prices. The difference in price could be on account of the age of the car, how many people have driven, etc. First Fix Your Budget Since used cars are available in a wide variety of models and prices, the starting point would be to determine your budget befor...
Read more

Debt Mutual Funds Best Fixed Income Investments

Debt Mutual Funds - Invest Online     In the last one year, except for a select few sectoral funds and small cap funds, not many of the equity funds have given great returns. On the other hand, debt funds have done relatively well in terms of returns. So far in the new year too, the stock market has been extremely volatile, pushing investors to look for safer havens. In this context, debt funds are looking safer bets for those investors who do not have the appetite for higher level of volatility. Investors who look for a regular income stream, also look at fixed income products like debt funds, bank fixed deposits and post office monthly income schemes.  Among the fixed income products, debt funds score over others because of chances of higher return, has nearly similar level of risks and liquidity. According to Shah, people looking for regular income could opt for a systematic withdrawal plan (SWP) in debt funds , which, if done judi ciously could also save on taxes. Shah explaine...
Read more

Diversification is key to gain more

Even those who prefer debt for its safety are looking at more options    It is not often that you find more than a couple of asset classes producing good returns at the same time. Invariably, assets such as gold and equity don't perform in tandem, and hence it was easier to allocate to them in line with the risk profile of the investors. In the last couple of quarters, however, more than one asset has turned attractive - gold, debt and equity. In line with the trend, you even have monthly income plans with a combination of more than two assets.    In the past, those who stuck to debt were a different class of investors who didn't wish to take risk with their money. The changing lifecycles and the growing integration of investment markets across the globe have pushed even individual investors to embrace the concept of asset allocation. Hence, you have individuals who were using debt to park profits being prepared to take advantage of other assets.    For instance, when the...
Read more
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...
Invest in Tax Saving Mutual Funds Download Any Applications
Transact Mutual Funds Online Invest Online
Buy Gold Mutual Funds Invest Now