The inflation fire is now an inferno. It singed wallets on its way from 4.7 per cent in July 2007 to 8.86 per cent in May 2008. It did not stop there, but shot up to a 13-year high of 12.64 per cent for the week ended July. Much of this recent rise is being attributed to the pervasive impact of the increase in the state-administered prices of oil products on 5 June. That looked inevitable after international oil prices rose to an all-time high, up to $140 a barrel last month. Worse, this inflation is not expected to go south anytime soon.
Why high inflation is here to stay - Oil aftershock. With little chance of increasing global supplies, higher extraction costs, production cuts and export taxes in some oil producing countries, and speculative investments in oil by large international investors has buttressed price pressures due to continuing high demand for oil.
Rising food prices - A worldwide shortage is driving up food prices. In India, oil seed prices are 20 per cent higher than a year ago. While food supplies are expected to increase over 6-8 months, higher costs of inputs (diesel, fertilisers, and seeds, among others) would likely continue to keep prices high
High commodity prices - High prices of commodities such as iron and steel and edibles have been responsible for about a fifth of the spike in price rise. With stock markets worldwide falling, large international institutional investors are buying commodities, further pushing up their prices and inflation, a trend unlikely to change soon.
Expensive funds - On 24 June, the Reserve Bank of India hiked the cash-reserve ratio and the repo rate (rate at which it lends to banks) by 50 basis points each to reduce liquidity and weaken inflationary pressures. This has raised banks' cost of funds and, thus, making cost of production higher. With limited policy options, it could do so again.
Weaker rupee - With a rapid price rise you need more rupees for the same amount of imports, making imported products or those with high import content such as edible oils, costlier. Expect more of the same.
Money shock
The immediate impact of high inflation will be pressure on household budgets, and lower savings, both for now and the future. Higher interest rates are pushing up EMIs. Inflation-adjusted returns from fixed income options, be it fixed deposits or pensions, have gone negative.
Five-year term deposits paying 8.5 per cent when inflation is 11.5 per cent are giving real returns of -2.69 per cent. So, the value of what you get back is lower than what you put in. The future's not rosy either. Higher costs due to high inflation is likely to dent corporate profitability, putting downward pressure on stock prices.
Some sectors, such as aviation, could see layoffs, while fewer people will be hired by IT, BPO, and banking and financial services companies. A recent services employment report for April-June 2008 by staffing company TeamLease said ITeS lost the most (-24 points) on its index of increasing employment.
Your action plan
As always, to tackle the situation, you will have to keep existing outflows down, skip new large expenses, bump up your savings, and invest in higher return options at, perhaps, marginally higher risk.
Enhance emergency funds, life and health covers. The 3-6 months' worth of expenses that you keep aside in liquid assets such as fixed deposits for emergencies will need to be increased. Life and health covers may need to be augmented. Bridge the gap with low-cost term plans and family floaters.
Avoid large savings account balances. Drain your bank account into short-term debt funds such as fixed maturity plans. At 9-10 per cent returns, the real rate of return for FMPs may be negative in the short term. But, we expect inflation to lower by the last quarter of 2008 after which returns will turn positive.
Prepay your home loan. As home finance rates are set to climb higher, prepay your floating rate loans. No investment option will currently give assured returns to match the higher interest outgo.
Opt for capital gains and dividend instead of interest. Interest income is taxed at your income tax rate while capital gains taxes are lower or zero. Also, short-term capital gains are taxed at higher rates than long-term gains, which can even be zero. Dividends in your hands, whether from stocks, equity or debt mutual funds, is tax free.
Continue with equity investments. The only way to beat inflation is to keep investing in equity. Carry on with your existing systematic investment plans in equity funds. For fresh investments, seek larger cap funds from OLM 50 - they are likely to rebound first, along with the blue-chips they primarily invest in.
If you want to pick up stocks, invest in stages and go for value buys. History is on your side. If you had invested in the Sensex after the markets recovered from the tech bust in 2004, you would be sitting on gains of about 150 per cent even now. Avoid interest rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate and auto. Go for large-cap pharma and FMCG stocks, which are more stable.
Diversify in international funds and gold. Over the last six months, while the Indian market was falling by over 30 per cent, international funds fell by a little over 13 per cent. As before, we will yet again recommend that you invest 5-10 per cent of your portfolio in gold exchange-traded funds and gold mutual funds as periods of high inflation witness a surge in gold prices.
This will shore up the minimum long-term growth of your overall investments.
High inflation has terrible repercussions on the future of our money. Luckily, we have enough weapons in our arsenal to fight and win the war against it. Time's come to pull out all stops.
Why high inflation is here to stay - Oil aftershock. With little chance of increasing global supplies, higher extraction costs, production cuts and export taxes in some oil producing countries, and speculative investments in oil by large international investors has buttressed price pressures due to continuing high demand for oil.
Rising food prices - A worldwide shortage is driving up food prices. In India, oil seed prices are 20 per cent higher than a year ago. While food supplies are expected to increase over 6-8 months, higher costs of inputs (diesel, fertilisers, and seeds, among others) would likely continue to keep prices high
High commodity prices - High prices of commodities such as iron and steel and edibles have been responsible for about a fifth of the spike in price rise. With stock markets worldwide falling, large international institutional investors are buying commodities, further pushing up their prices and inflation, a trend unlikely to change soon.
Expensive funds - On 24 June, the Reserve Bank of India hiked the cash-reserve ratio and the repo rate (rate at which it lends to banks) by 50 basis points each to reduce liquidity and weaken inflationary pressures. This has raised banks' cost of funds and, thus, making cost of production higher. With limited policy options, it could do so again.
Weaker rupee - With a rapid price rise you need more rupees for the same amount of imports, making imported products or those with high import content such as edible oils, costlier. Expect more of the same.
Money shock
The immediate impact of high inflation will be pressure on household budgets, and lower savings, both for now and the future. Higher interest rates are pushing up EMIs. Inflation-adjusted returns from fixed income options, be it fixed deposits or pensions, have gone negative.
Five-year term deposits paying 8.5 per cent when inflation is 11.5 per cent are giving real returns of -2.69 per cent. So, the value of what you get back is lower than what you put in. The future's not rosy either. Higher costs due to high inflation is likely to dent corporate profitability, putting downward pressure on stock prices.
Some sectors, such as aviation, could see layoffs, while fewer people will be hired by IT, BPO, and banking and financial services companies. A recent services employment report for April-June 2008 by staffing company TeamLease said ITeS lost the most (-24 points) on its index of increasing employment.
Your action plan
As always, to tackle the situation, you will have to keep existing outflows down, skip new large expenses, bump up your savings, and invest in higher return options at, perhaps, marginally higher risk.
Enhance emergency funds, life and health covers. The 3-6 months' worth of expenses that you keep aside in liquid assets such as fixed deposits for emergencies will need to be increased. Life and health covers may need to be augmented. Bridge the gap with low-cost term plans and family floaters.
Avoid large savings account balances. Drain your bank account into short-term debt funds such as fixed maturity plans. At 9-10 per cent returns, the real rate of return for FMPs may be negative in the short term. But, we expect inflation to lower by the last quarter of 2008 after which returns will turn positive.
Prepay your home loan. As home finance rates are set to climb higher, prepay your floating rate loans. No investment option will currently give assured returns to match the higher interest outgo.
Opt for capital gains and dividend instead of interest. Interest income is taxed at your income tax rate while capital gains taxes are lower or zero. Also, short-term capital gains are taxed at higher rates than long-term gains, which can even be zero. Dividends in your hands, whether from stocks, equity or debt mutual funds, is tax free.
Continue with equity investments. The only way to beat inflation is to keep investing in equity. Carry on with your existing systematic investment plans in equity funds. For fresh investments, seek larger cap funds from OLM 50 - they are likely to rebound first, along with the blue-chips they primarily invest in.
If you want to pick up stocks, invest in stages and go for value buys. History is on your side. If you had invested in the Sensex after the markets recovered from the tech bust in 2004, you would be sitting on gains of about 150 per cent even now. Avoid interest rate-sensitive stocks such as real estate and auto. Go for large-cap pharma and FMCG stocks, which are more stable.
Diversify in international funds and gold. Over the last six months, while the Indian market was falling by over 30 per cent, international funds fell by a little over 13 per cent. As before, we will yet again recommend that you invest 5-10 per cent of your portfolio in gold exchange-traded funds and gold mutual funds as periods of high inflation witness a surge in gold prices.
This will shore up the minimum long-term growth of your overall investments.
High inflation has terrible repercussions on the future of our money. Luckily, we have enough weapons in our arsenal to fight and win the war against it. Time's come to pull out all stops.
